The Lumina Intelligence UK Eating Out Market Report 2021 reveals that the UK eating out market is expected to grow 33.4% in 2021, to £63.6bn.
By the end of 2022, the market is set to be worth £91.9bn, exceeding its pre-pandemic value of £91.3bn.
The total eating out market declined by 47.8% to just £47.7bn in 2020, with just 11.3 weeks of normal trading.
Market recovery so far in 2021 has been stunted with closures at the beginning of the year for predominantly dine-in channels, with an expected 25 weeks of restriction-free trading.
The retail, travel and leisure sub-segment of the total eating out market is expected to have the quickest turnover recovery (+41.1% to £16.0bn), with on-the-go and relatively low-ticket channels well placed for takeaway operations and recessionary trading.
Hotels, pubs and restaurants, the largest sub-segment of the total eating out market by value and outlets, is expected to recover slower, reaching two thirds of its 2019 value in 2021 (+32.1% to £44.8bn).
“With all restrictions on the hospitality sector set to end in June, attention now turns to market recovery," says Blonnie Whist, insight director at Lumina Intelligence.
"In the interim, we will see slight polarisation between channels, with on-the-go and relatively low-ticket solutions well placed to continue to capitalise on demand for takeaway, as well as combat any recessionary trading.
“Hotels, pubs and restaurants are set for a slower recovery, as prolonged restrictions on indoor dining and limited travel hamper 2021 trading."
The total eating out market is set to grow by 1.2% from 2022 to 2024, an improvement from the +0.9% growth seen between 2017 and 2019.
Managed, branded and franchised pubs, as well as traditional fast food outlets, are set to lead absolute value growth in the market during this period, with pubs driving sales through refurbishments and premiumisation and fast food growing through new space, tech-led innovation and further delivery capacity.
"Between 2022 and 2024 there is a £3.1bn growth prize for operators to target," explains Whist.
"Managed, branded and franchised pubs are set to be the biggest beneficiaries of this, with growth of £663m expected.”
The Lumina Intelligence UK Eating Out Market Report 2021 is the definitive report on the sector, covering the market and competitive landscape, consumer attitudes and behaviours and future outlook. Find out more about the report here.