'Significant turning point' as hospitality sales growth outpaces inflation in January

The Tracker — produced by CGA by NielsenIQ in partnership with The Coffer Group and RSM UK — has now recorded year-on-year growth (14.7%) for four months in a row.

January’s figure is also marginally ahead of the current 10.1% rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Prices Index.

However, trading in January benefited from comparisons with early 2022, when some consumers stayed at home amid concerns about the Omicron variant of Covid. High inflation means sales continue to lag pre-pandemic levels in real terms.

“After 15 consecutive months of like-for-like sales growth failing to beat inflation, these results represent a significant turning point for the sector even if the comparative period was somewhat subdued due to omicron concerns,” says Paul Newman, head of leisure and hospitality at RSM UK.

“These results will be a welcome confidence booster to an industry that has been in desperate need of some good news and will hopefully herald the start of a sustained period of stronger trading.”

According to the Tracker, pubs carried the momentum they built over Christmas into 2023, with like-for-like sales 12.9% ahead of January 2022.

Restaurant groups’ growth also reached double digits at 10.3%. However, sales in the bars segment were down 3.1%.

The Coffer CGA Business Tracker indicates a very strong month in London, as office workers and visitors continued their return to the capital. January sales within the M25 were 19.9% ahead of 2022—more than twice the growth of 8.8% outside the M25.

“These figures show consumers remain eager to eat and drink out despite the mounting pressure on disposable incomes,” says Karl Chessell, director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA by NielsenIQ.

“It’s particularly pleasing to see such a strong bounce back in London, where sales have been hit harder than in other cities by Covid disruption.

“Optimism for 2023 must be tempered by ongoing concerns about fragile consumer confidence and the debilitating inflation that businesses face in energy, food, labour and other key costs. But while hospitality faces challenges in the months ahead, it remains a dynamic sector with a bright long-term future.”