'Tentative sales growth' in November below inflation estimates

The Tracker, produced by CGA in partnership with The Coffer Group and RSM, shows groups’ total sales in November were up by 2% on the pre Covid-19 levels of November 2019, with the pub and bar sectors both achieving sales growth of 3% - just ahead of restaurants at 2%.

It is the fourth month in a row that 2021 sales have exceeded 2019 levels. However, the rate has dropped from 8% in September and 3% in October, and November’s 2% growth is below most current inflation estimates.

Rising costs in food, drink, energy and other key inputs have put operators’ margins under strain, while supply issues and staff shortages have added to their challenges.

Concerns around the impact of ‘Plan B’ restrictions announced by the Government this week​​, will further dent consumer confidence and restrict trading in the most important month of the year for pubs, bars and restaurants.
 
The Tracker highlights contrasting fortunes for groups in London, where total sales dipped by 2%; and venues outside the M25, where they rose by 4%. It suggests the capital is still suffering from an absence of office workers and domestic and international visitors.

“November’s sales figures demonstrate the resilience of managed groups in the face of ferocious headwinds," says Karl Chessell, director - hospitality operators and food, EMEA at CGA.

"They have battled hard to shore up sales ever since their venues reopened in the spring, but the new Covid-19 variant adds yet another threat to trading in the most important month of the year.

"The next few weeks will be crucial to give hospitality some momentum for growth in 2022, but new restrictions may threaten the future of thousands of fragile businesses and jobs.”

Mark Sheehan, managing director at Coffer Corporate Leisure, describes the figures as a 'fragile recovery'.

"November’s sales were relatively strong, but the current uncertainty is going to hit Christmas badly," he says.

"However, the outlook is much brighter and despite some bumps in the road we expect a strong 2022.”