UK eating out market to fall by 60-70% this year

The report says the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for spending on out of home food and drink is expected to fall by 23.1% between 2017-2020F, down from growth of 1.2% over the period 2014-2017.

In contrast, the CAGR for in home food and drink spend is set to grow, from 2.0% between 2014-2017 up to 4.5% for the period 2017-2020F.

While consumers have remained cautious with their spending throughout the Coronavirus pandemic, with 63% actively trying to save, the report finds that 45% of are confident about their financial position over the next six months, compared with 21% who are concerned.

However, nearly two-thirds (64%) say they are worried about visiting eating out venues.

The report finds that the ability for operators to bounce back from the Coronavirus pandemic will be heavily based on the location they serve.

As more people opt to continue working from home, reduced footfall will be a key challenge, with rental negotiations pivotal in moving forwards.

“The UK eating out market has been brought to its knees by the Coronavirus pandemic and recovery will not come quickly," says Blonnie Walsh, head of insight at HIM & MCA Insight.

"Certain channels and locations are certainly better placed to bounce back more quickly from the effects of Coronavirus, such as coffee shops and fast food outlets, which are more suited to on-the-go visits and are less experience-led.

"Also, as was the case throughout the pandemic, those with delivery capabilities are likely to recover quicker than others. In contrast, dine-in channels that revolve around social experiences will not recover as swiftly, with social distancing measures set to be in place for some time.

“Regardless of channel, recovery is going to be hard, with over half of operators expecting it to take 13-24 months to get back to pre-crisis profitability levels. However, consumers are positive about their finances, so there remains an opportunity for operators to attract future spend.

"Consumer expectations will be much higher, and the onus will be on operators to reassure its customers that their operations and premises are clean and safe. As always, those that are best prepared, will be best placed to seize opportunities for success.”